I did an auction draft for a 2024 dynasty league and wanted to share my takeaways with you.
This article is hopefully very helpful for you if you’re headed into your own dynasty startup auction draft in 2024.
I’ve attached our auction results here. Hopefully they’re helpful!
If you want to read my personal analysis of my team, click this link!
Just for context, here are my league settings:
- 12 teams
- 6×6 (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, TB+BB+HBP – QS, K, ERA, WHIP, SV, HD)
- C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, IF, LF, CF, RF, OF, 9P
- 13 bench, 22 minors
- Keep forever, no contracts.
- $525 auction budget
An Analysis of Our Draft:
Seven of the twelve teams came out of the gate hitting hard and willing to bid for aging guys. One guy was on autopick as he had an emergency just before the draft. He did not set auction values so Fantrax auto-bid did nothing for him. That was basically $525 off the table. Big bummer, but it is what it is.
Another team demonstrated that they were going hard after young stars, bidding $23 on Skenes and then taking Langford for $45 (!!), then Holliday ($43). He took Chourio for $100 which was ridiculous, because he nominated him for $100 and obviously no one else bid. He also took Caminero ($37) and Dominguez ($75 – same situation as with Chourio), and Tatis ($50). Obviously, he heavily overpaid for Chourio and Dominguez, but Caminero, Langford, and Holliday were all fair values where he outbid other people.
For context, here’s what the top guys went for:
- Ronald Acuña $105
- Corbin Carroll $83
- Julio Rodriguez $79
- Bobby Witt Jr. $87
- Spencer Strider $70
- Shohei Ohtani – $81
- Juan Soto – $75
- Kyle Tucker $78
- Mookie Betts – $62
- Fernando Tatis Jr. – $50
- Luis Robert Jr. $54
- Yordan Álvarez – $61
- Ozzie Albies – $52
- Elly de La Cruz – $47 (by me!)
You can decide whether you think those values were fair for unproven prospects, but, considering this is a dynasty, I think between $40-50 for Langford and Holiday is fair. I regret not bidding more for them.
Underrated Players in our Auction Draft:
You can take a look at the auction results yourself, but I wanted to highlight some of the players that I think went below their value.
- Aaron Judge ($40)
- Trea Turner ($32)
- Harper ($35)
- Fransisco Lindor ($34)
- Pete Alonso ($32)
- Cody Bellinger ($17)
It was this mid-tier of 29-30 year olds that I thought went for excellent values. My strategy wasn’t a win-now one, so I didn’t end up taking them, but I think that anyone who is looking to win now, this is where the money is – at least in this draft.
Overrated Players in our Auction Draft:
These guys really stand out as overpays, besides the obvious $100 for Chourio which was unnecessary and annoying:
- Freddie Freeman ($44)
- Spencer Strider ($70)
- Gerrit Cole $49
- Kyle Tucker $78
Ultimately, it’s hard for me to imagine taking Cole for $49 or Freeman for $44 given their age, but I do understand how someone might. Strider for $70 feels absolutely ridiculous, especially since I paid $44 for Eury Perez. And Tucker for $78 felt like an overpay, especially when Tatis went for $50.
Dynasty Startup Auction Draft Strategy:
Establish your time frame
This was really important. Honestly, I think focus is really important when it comes to these drafts. Nothing looks more meh than a team with some stars who will help them win now and some stars who will help them win later. Ultimately, I think they’ll lose now to someone who committed to now and lose later to someone who committed to later.
Ultimately, I wanted to leave this draft without needing to do much trading. However, I can see that if you really think you can cut good deals, you might take some players outside of our strategy for trading purposes – especially if they are good value.
Look for value & be flexible
This brings me to my next point: look for value. Whether you’re aiming to win now or be a future juggernaut, don’t burn your budget overpaying for players. Be patient and stay flexible and grab those players that fit into your strategy. I’m also not opposed to grabbing a guy here and there if you think they’re just going for too good of a value. However, fair warning, a draft is where, collectively, your league gets to value players (especially in an auction format). Yeah, I think that Trea Turner for $31 is a steal, but the league might not agree with me (as they demonstrated), and I might not be able to get fair trade value for him for a while.
My league presented value with the 29-31 year old, tier-2 guys and the sophomore players who didn’t break out. Keep your eyes open to value in your own draft, but I would imagine that these are the two groups that tend to be undervalued. Everyone wants the top 5 guys, the sub 26 tier-2 guys, or the top ten prospects. The value will be outside of that…probably.
Don’t nominate players you want until the very end
This was super obvious and probably is to you as well. Don’t nominate players until more money is off the board. The less money there is, generally, the less players will go for.
The only caveat to this is when you hit the end of a tier. In our draft, first base dropped off quickly and I found myself fighting a few other teams for Casas and Encarnacion-Strand which was not fun to do. I ended up passing on them and grabbing Josh Naylor. I can see nominating a guy at a position before the position thins out to much to make sure you get fair value. But this doesn’t always work either, since some of your fellow draftees might also be waiting for that guy.
4. Higher budget doesn’t necessarily mean more money on each player.
It means more players go for higher money. With our $525 budget, it seemed to only inflate individual players by like 10-20%. But the draft just lasted a lot longer with many players going in that $10-20 range.
Be patient, but not too patient
I could literally feel sometimes when a guy was getting desperate and that was fun. For example, I’d see one guy bidding a lot for a young, high-upside arm but he would keep losing. It gave me some leeway to drive up the prices on him when the pickings got slim.
So be patient, but go the extra dollar when it feels right. I mean, especially in a dynasty, these guys will be with you forever. What’s another $5 here or there?
People will overpay in the beginning
But also, the best players will go. I tend to not aim for those guys. Instead, I try to aim for the second tier guys – like Tatis ($50) or Elly De La Cruz ($47) – who stay around a little longer. However, once those guys went, the last guys on the board went for very high again – Alvarez ($61) and Luis Robert Jr. ($54).
Keep players on the board for as long as possible
With a 10 second clock between bids, it paid often for me to jump in with a bid at the last second simply to keep that player on the board a bit longer. When they were very undervalued, I’d bid, knowing I’d be ok keeping the player (even though they weren’t a target for me), but every time, that would start a bidding war and usually drive the player up another 20%. This does not work if the player has already been bid up a lot. It’s more when it seems the league has just fallen asleep for a minute and someone is about to get a steal. Don’t let that happen, unless that person is you.
You probably don’t have to worry about leaving money on the board
I think this concern is pretty overblown. I constantly had more money than my league mates and I used up all my money just fine. It’s really just a question of – when do you want to go the extra dollar – now or at the end? I personally waited until the end, so I paid a few extra dollars for a lot of players I wanted, instead of paying big bucks for the stars at the beginning. It just depends on your strategy.
For dynasty auctions, don’t underestimate how prospects go for
If you want a highly-developed, highly-hyped prospect like Langford or Holliday, be prepared to pay up. For reference, here’s how much they went for:
- Langford ($45)
- Holliday ($43)
- Caminero ($37)
I actually think these are very fair prices, considering their age and potential, and I wish I took at least one of them. However, I think the guy who paid for them would have bid much higher, so I could see these guys going for $50+, especially Holliday and Langford. I didn’t include Chourio, because someone nominated him for $100 which was unnecessary and thus, I don’t know how much he would have gone for.
Sophomore year guys get a major discount
People really seemed to be sleeping on second year guys who weren’t absolutely breakouts their rookie year. I grabbed this value wherever I could. There was also a nice injury discount for young guys – this concerned me a lot less since, it’s dynasty, and I wasn’t concerned about this year. For example, I nabbed:
- O’Neil Cruz ($28)
- Anthony Volpe ($17)
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. ($24)
- Royce Lewis ($25)
- Josh Jung ($15)
I love that value.
1B is pretty weak for 2024 dynasties
I noticed this to be the weakest position. Except for Vlad Jr. and Casas, all other top first basemen were in their late 20s/early 30s.
If you don’t get Vlad Jr. or Casas, and you skip out on the older guys, then you’re left with either Josh Naylor or Encarnacion-Strand or Vinnie Pasquantino – which certainly aren’t bad buys, but have some more question marks.
The real issue is that the first base prospect pool feels pretty light. Mayo went for a pretty penny. Manzardo also went for a long – even though I’m not sure how valuable he’ll be at that position for a 12 teamer. Beyond that, who is there? Basically, Basallo, Kjerstad, Xavier Isaac, and maaaybe Abimelec Ortiz and Nolan Schanuel. That felt pretty thin to me and it’s probably the position I feel I have the least depth at.
What About Closers?
Top closers went for about $20. Ultimately, you needed to pay up if you want to compete. This league has holds too so the top hold guys went in the high teens. I feel like one of the advantages for having a longer win horizon is not needing to buy closers. Instead, I got young, high upside bullpen arms that I thought might grow into the closer spot.
That’s a wrap. Hopefully, this content is helpful for you heading into your own drafts. Drop me a comment or hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions.