League #1: Pre Season:
This is a bit of a different dynasty blog. There are tons of player rankings out there, but what I feel is lacking is content that tracks a team’s progress through each year, allowing you to see the strategies and decisions at play, and see whether they work or not. Then you can take them home to your teams. It’s the kind of content I like to read, and I can’t find much of it out there.
This content was inspired by this series of articles by Dynasty Guru. Go check it out: Dynasty Guru – Rebuilding a Dynasty League Roster
So, without further ado, I will give you insight into all of my moves and how I’m doing in each league. At least once a month, you’ll get an update on my teams, the transactions, and how things are going.
The Team: 14 Team Roto Dynasty
League Settings:
- 14 teams, Roto (6×6) – with HDs and OPS
- C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, 3 UT, 9 P (10-man benches + 10 prospect slots)
- 20 active roster, 10 bench, 10 minors
The team I took over looked like this:
C: Alejandro Kirk
1B: Cody Bellinger
2B: Matt McLain
3B: Rafael Devers
SS: Francisco Lindor
OF: Mike Trout, Nolan Jones, Kerry Carpenter
U: Esteury Ruiz, Nolan Arenado, Ketel Marte
Bench: Triston Casas, Trevor Story, Edouard Julien, Andres Gimenez, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Byron Buxton, Vinnie Pasquintino
Minors: Austin Wells, Jo Adell, Marco Luciano, Jose Miranda, Addison Barger, Kevin Parada, Sal Stewart
Pitchers:
SP: Gerrit Cole, Kevin Gausman, Zack Wheeler, Framber Valdez, Ryan Pepiot, Cole Ragans, Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish, Justin Verlander, Jack Flaherty
RP: Jose Alvarado, Adbert Alzolay, Pete Fairbanks, Brusdar Graterol, Ryan Pressly, Will Smith
Overall, this is a pretty solid team. The team had won 2, 3, 2 place the last three years. Great!
But number 1 has a lineup like this:
C: Contreras, 1B: Vald Jr, 2B: O. Albies, 3B: Machado, SS: Bichette, OF: Carroll, Soto, Tucker, U: Marte, Ohtani
Stacked. Pitching he’s not quite as good, but still good with Strider at the top.
Analyzing My Team:
Regardless, we’ll get that number one spot eventually. Now, I didn’t want to do too much with it, but I had way too many players, so I had to either cut some or trade them.
I like the analysis recommendation from DynastyGuru to split players into Pre-Prime (pre-27 years old), Prime (27-31), and Post Prime (31+). So…let’s break it down:
Pre-Prime:
Kirk (25)
McLain (24)
Nolan Jones (25)
Edouard Julien (24)
Esteury Ruiz (25)
Kerry Carpenter (26)
Triston Casas (24)
Andres Gimenez (24)
Vinnie Pasquintino (26)
Cole Ragans (26)
Ryan Pepiot (26)
Prime:
Devers (27)
Lindor (30)
Bellinger (28)
Ketel Marte (30)
Byron Buxton (30)
Framber Valdez (30)
Dylan Cease (28)
Jack Flaherty (28)
Post Prime – I took this from DynastyGuru and split this into two tiers (Post Prime 1 are guys who will still be relevant in two years. Post Prime 2 won’t be)
Post Prime 1:
Mike Trout (32)
Nolan Arenado (32)
Gerrit Cole (33)
Kevin Gausman (33)
Zack Wheeler (33)
Post Prime 2:
Trevor Story (32)
Yu Darvish (37)
Justin Verlander (40)
Anthony Rizzo (36)
Kris Bryant (32)
I don’t really care about the age of my bullpen since the turnover there is so high. It’s more like: are they a setup man or a closer? What’s their K/9?
Win now or later?
As you can see, I’ve got a pretty solid core of young hitters and hitters just entering their prime. My pitching staff is still projected to be pretty elite this year, but it’s aging fast.
I decided with this team that I wasn’t going to double down on age to win now, but I also wasn’t going to sell the house. I figured it would be pretty hard for me to get first with the way the guy built his team, but I could get 2nd or 3rd while still dealing some of my depth for youth.
When I first take over a team, the first thing I want to do is just get a sense of the league and the other teams. I started just studying their lineups and hitting them up on chat. I got a sense of which teams were more active and which were less. Then we started sending and receiving some trade offers.
The Plan:
It took a bit of time for the plan to fully develop and I made some small mistakes along the way (which I will share). I regret not being a bit more patient and setting out a full plan beforehand. But c’est la vie.
The Drops:
I planned to drop most of my farm system (except for Austin Wells), Anthony Rizzo, Trevor Story, Byron Buxton, Jack Flaherty, and Kris Bryant. So, I wanted to see if I could trade those players for at least something in return – preferably draft picks. Both 2024 and 2025 picks are in play.
League Setting Loopholes?:
I will note that I also have devised a strategy based upon my league settings. There are 9 pitcher spots, daily lineups, and a 1400 IP limit – no minimum IP. That’s a pretty small max limit. With HDs and SVs as separate categories, I started assessing how that would value RPs in the league. My conclusion (which only time will tell if it’s correct), is that RPs have a pretty big advantage. With a limited amount of innings, I want guys who will dominate the K/9 stat. Those guys are relie
vers. Relievers will also probably win me WHIP and ERA. They’ll also win SVs and HDs. Now you might think I’m burning myself on Wins, but honestly, I don’t think so. Why? Because relief pitchers get wins too. Actually, last year (2023), they got a lot of wins. Wins are super unpredictable for starting pitchers. Obviously, they’re unpredictable for relievers too. But it seems to me that – at best – a SP is getting 1 win for about every 10 IP they throw. That’s super optimistic. Usually, it’s more like 15. Cole, for example, was 1 W / 15 IP. Strider was 1 W / 9.6 IP. Let’s call it an average of 13 IP / W. This is especially true with the shorter leash most starters have now.
Relievers, on the other hand, seem to average about 1 W / 12 IP – which actually is a bit conservative. Tanner Scott got a win every 8.6 IP. D. Williams got a win every 7.3 IP. I mean, they’re unpredictable obviously, but so are SP wins! Conservatively, I think we can say that starting pitchers do not sport higher win-to-inning ratios than elite relievers.
I also don’t think I’m the only one rolling out this strategy. #1 seems to be doing this too.
Now, with 9 pitching spots, the max I can field a day is 9 which means that…I do still need some starting pitchers to fill out those innings. My plan is to field 7-8 relievers every day and be very selective with my starting pitching. 8 relievers throwing approximately 65 innings is 520 innings — let’s call it 500. That leaves me 900 innings for my starting pitchers. If a pitcher throws approximately 180 innings, that leaves me with room for 5 pitchers throwing the whole season.
Looking at my staff, I ideally would ride with about 7-8 starters. With my 8 relievers, that gives me 16 players. I have 11 hitters, which leaves me 3 more spots for bench players.
Starting off, I had 10 starting pitchers, but Jack Flaherty was pretty much a straight drop.
The Trade Plan:
Get younger with my pitching and offload some pitching for hitting upgrades. See if I could bundle players to get upgrades at hitting. I also need a catcher since I don’t think Kirk will be restorable for most of the season.
Since I want to be competing this year and next year, I’m not really looking for prospects that will impact my team, but rather prospects who I can either use as trade chips now to shore up other parts of my team, or prospects that I think will rise in value this year that will then be really good trade chips next year.
I also have way too many second basemen with McLain, Marte, Jimenez, and Edouard Julien. I have some concerns about Julien, but with OBP as a category and with him hitting atop the Twins lineup, I think he could be good value for me. And he’s 24. I am big on McLain and didn’t want to deal him. I am a bit lower on Jimenez and worry about him dropping off a cliff a bit with his hit tool. I thought with his age, he might be an attractive trade target. So I started dangling him around.
I include the ages with each player.
Trade #1:
The first trade came through and I dealt:
Dylan Cease (28) + Andres Jimenez (25)
For: Logan O’Hoppe (24) + Hunter Greene (24)
I feel like this was a pretty even trade. I like O’Hoppe a lot more than Kirk and I hope he can be a solid piece for me at catcher for years to come. As I said above, I was comfortable letting Jimenez go (although it did thin up my SBs a little bit depending on how much I am comfortable running Ruiz out there every day…please hit above .250 please hit above .250).
Dylan Cease and Hunter Greene feel like similar pitchers with similar risks. Both are high K guys with control concerns. Cease is more established and might get traded to a contender, but Greene definitely has more upside and could be a big young arm for me.
Trade #2:
I dealt:
Framber Valdez (30) + my first-round pick (1.11)
For: James Wood (20), Kyle Manzardo (23), Jake Burger (27), Eduardo Rodriguez (30)
Here, Burger and E-Rod were kind of throw-ins. The main gets for me were Wood and Manzardo. I like Manzardo and think he will be an impact player in 2023. I don’t expect him to be a superstar, but he could be a Vinnie-type guy, which made me more comfortable dangling Vinnie P out on the block. I also got Wood who is proving to be an exciting prospect – just outside the top 10 on most rankings now. I am concerned about his strikeouts and hit tool, but I knew he would be a valuable trade chip too. I have serious concerns about F. Valdez’s second-half implosion last year. He might be fine too, but I felt like I had the depth to lose him.
Trade #3:
Next, I wanted to part ways with Arenado. I felt like I had the depth to afford losing him. He’s obviously good for counting stats, but I thought with a combination of K. Marte, Kerry Carpenter, Julien, or even Manzardo on the rise, I would probably find someone capable of replacing him. Plus, I’m uncertain how much longer his back will hold up.
I was targeting some younger, high-upside pitchers.
I traded:
Arenado (32) + Pereira (22)
for: Aaron Civale (28) + Emmet Sheehan (24) + 2024 Pick (5.4).
I was content to include Pereira. He showed promise in the minors but really struggled in his call-up, and I think he’ll be sharing at-bats with a lot of guys on the Yankees. I just don’t have the roster space to hold onto him, and there are better prospects available.
In return, I acquired two pitchers who I’m pretty excited about. I’m hoping Civale can return to form after a rough start in Tampa Bay, and I’m betting on it. I also really like Sheehan. He’s young, showed flashes of brilliance last year, and I trust the Dodgers’ developmental staff to bring out the best in him. I know he may not always have a spot in the rotation this year, but I didn’t mind. I’m going to be spot-starting anyway with the IP limit, and I think Sheehan could be an excellent source of strikeouts and wins when he does start. And he’s only 24. The draft pick was a nice addition too, although by round 5 in this league, most players are barely rosterable or deep prospects.
Trade #4:
Okay, this next one irks me a bit because I was under the assumption that once a prospect no longer had minor league eligibility, I had to promote him, which I did with Austin Wells. I was actually mistaken about this – so check your league rules carefully! However, with O’Hoppe at catcher and no roster space for Wells, I looked to deal him.
I traded:
Austin Wells (24) for Prelander Berroa (23).
I like Berroa, especially after his trade to the White Sox. He’s got filthy stuff, and I expect him to be in the bullpen. It’s a minor deal, but I was happy with it. Also, I got to put Berroa back in my minors after I figured out that league rule.
Trade #5:
This trade was set up after I recognized the importance of dominant relievers and decided to deal one of my aging aces. I settled on Gausman. I was split 50/50 on him or Wheeler.
I traded:
Kevin Gausman (33) for Devin Williams (29) and Tanner Scott (29).
I’m not sure I made the best move here. I ultimately got two excellent closers with elite K/9s, so I’m happy about that. But I only realized that I had room for 8 relievers to be impactful, putting me at 8 – but I think I want 4 set-up men and 4 closers. Regardless, I don’t think this was bad, especially after reading reports of Gausman’s shoulder fatigue. I am constantly shocked by the massive turnover of starting pitchers. It makes me think that the key is really to get a bunch of pre-breakout guys and then sell them the year after their breakout. Other than a couple of guys, it feels like every 2021-2022 breakout guy is hurt or regressed hard.
It’s always nice to trade a guy away right before he gets hurt.
Trade #6:
The next set of trades here was really me trying to get anything from the guys who I knew I would be dropping.
I traded:
E-Rod (30) + Trevor Story (32) + Yanquiel Fernandez (21)
For: Ceddanne Rafaela (23) + Tink Hence (21) + Rd. 1 2025 Pick.
This was a pretty good return. I actually think this guy way overpaid for these players. E-Rod is a valuable streamer and maybe Trevor Story returns to form, but I have serious doubts about Story being able to stay healthy, and even if he does, he probably hits .230. I have no room for him. Fernandez was a throw-in. Not a bad prospect, but I don’t see a strong path towards playing time and the league is not deep enough for me to keep him as a prospect.
Rafaela could be good – especially if he hits at the top of the Sox lineup. I don’t think he’s going to be a super dominant player, but as early as this year, if he can hit like .260-.270, he should be a great source of counting stats and steals. I like Hence, but expected to deal him before he ever had an impact for me. The first-round pick was a great get for me too.
Trade #7:
This trade opened up when one of the rebuilding teams put Luis Robert Jr. on the block. This league values top prospects pretty highly – maybe too much. I know that the Robert owner tried to get Caminero from a competitive team this year, but the owner wouldn’t budge. Holliday and Chourio are basically untouchable.
Well, here comes little old me, waltzing in.
I traded:
James Wood (20) + two first-round 2025 picks + Tink Hence (21)
For: Luis Robert Jr. (26).
If Robert can stay healthy, I think this will work out great for me. He’s an elite power/speed bat, and I can certainly use him and his age. I didn’t feel like I had to give up too much, especially considering Robert’s age. I do have some concerns about him – i.e., his injury risk, his team, and his attitude – but that’s really the only reason he’s not a top 10 dynasty asset right now, for which I would have needed to give up more. I also love how I traded my droppable bats for a couple of pieces that netted me Robert in the end. I’m stoked.
On a side note, I tested these players out with some other owners and offered them for Tatis. No bites.
Trade #8:
I traded:
Vinnie Pasquantino (26)
For Roman Anthony (19).
This was a pretty fair trade in my mind. Vinnie could be valuable – especially with the OBP cat – but he could also be so boring, especially if the Royals lineup doesn’t take a big step forward. Without any steals in his profile, his floor of .270/20/70/70 is basically droppable in this league. I also feel like I have the bats to account for his absence.
As for Anthony, maybe I’m a bit biased, but he looks like a really elite prospect, especially with the likelihood of him playing for a stacked Boston lineup. I really like his prospect profile – great plate approach with a very high BB% and a low K%. His power took a step forward last year. There is a chance that his hit tool doesn’t translate that well to the bigs and we have a Jackie Bradley Jr. type guy. However, I think he makes his way into the top 5 prospects this year and I might deal him when that happens.
2024 FYPD Draft:
Now it’s draft time. I have four picks, 2 in the 2nd round, and 2 in the third. I have 6 roster spots open, so that means I’ll also get two pickups.
I’m mostly thinking upside here. I don’t care too much whether they fit my team or my positional needs. I want prospects that have a good chance of rising into valuable trade chips.
First pick (2.2) – Jett Williams.
Cool. All of the top draft picks are off the table, especially with DeLauter going three picks before. So I took Jett William. I love his hit tool and think he is being undervalued (maybe because of his height)? I debated between him and Colt Emerson, but ultimately chose Jett.
Second Pick (2.10):
I was happy to see Spencer Jones still on the board. People really seem to be sleeping on him. I see him as an Elly De La Cruz upside – with the same risks. He’s lit up Spring Training since I drafted him, and I think he’s going to shoot up rankings.
Third Pick (3.7) – Victor Scott II.
I really like this pick too. Guy is a speedster and has demonstrated a pretty good hit tool. If that holds up, he could be a monster. We’ll see how it ends up. But with Scott and Jones, I’ve got some good speed in my minors.
Fourth Pick (3.11) – Roderick Arias.
This is a high-risk, high-upside pick. International free agent that the Yanks dropped $4 mil on. He had an injury last year. If he hits this year, he’s going to rocket up rankings.
Draft Analysis:
All in all, I’m super happy. No one else seemed to be grabbing the guys I wanted which was a big relief. I was surprised at how poorly some of the guys drafted, including one owner taking Byron Buxton at 1.8 before guys like Matt Shaw, DeLauter, and Max Clark?!?!? What the hell? Also, fuck. I would have happily traded that guy Buxton for that pick before I dropped him. Just goes to show, don’t drop anyone before gauging trade interest.
I went full upside here. I value ceiling much more than floor when it comes to prospects, unless they’re really close to the majors like Manzardo.
Two Free Agent Pick Ups:
With my last two roster spots, I nabbed Jacob Melton and Josue De Paula. I see De Paula as a baby Soto with elite plate discipline. He’s only 18 so this one might have to cook for a bit. But he could rocket up the rankings too. Melton is a bit older and closer to the bigs. I love his power/speed combo and Houston’s development system, but his hit tool is concerning. We’ll see.
Where We Stand Now?
Eight trades and a draft later, I’m feeling pretty good about my team. I offloaded a lot of aging guys – Arenado, Gausman, Story – and got a lot of young, high upside guys.
My bullpen is now ready to go with 6 closers and 3 setup guys. I will probably try to trade a closer for something. I’d like to deal Will Smith.
I’m also considering dealing either Ragans or Wheeler, since I have 9 SP right now. That would leave me with 8 which is one more than my target. However, I’m not too concerned about that. I’d rather have excess starting pitchers than excess bats – something that unless you’re in a super deep league, I would highly recommend. I think Ragans might be one of those guys that I regret not taking advantage of his hype value now. And Wheeler is awesome, but aging.
In exchange I want a young impact bat. I’ve been exploring deals for Jordan Walker or Jazz Chisholm Jr., but I’m not in a hurry to make a deal. I also wouldn’t be opposed to dealing Ketel Marte for a set of prospects.
I obviously chose not to deal away Trout. I think he’s underrated right now. I know he’s getting older and has plenty of injury risk, but I wasn’t willing to trade him at his current value.
My team now looks like:
C: Logan O’Hoppe
1B: Cody Bellinger
2B: Matt McLain
3B: Rafael Devers
SS: Francisco Lindor
OF: Mike Trout, Nolan Jones, Luis Robert Jr.
U: Estreuy Ruiz, Triston Casas, Ketel Marte
Bench: Kerry Carpenter, Edouard Julien
Minors: Kyle Manzardo, Roderick Arias, Jett Williams, Ceddanne Rafaela, Roman Anthony, Josue De Paula, Spencer Jones, Jacob Melton, Victor Scott II, Prelander Berroa
Pitchers:
SP: Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, Cole Ragans, Yu Darvish, Justin Verlander, Hunter Greene, Emmet Sheehan, Aaron Civale, Ryan Pepiot
RP: Jose Alvarado, Adbert Alzolay, Pete Fairbanks, Brusdar Graterol, Ryan Pressly, Will Smith, Tanner Scott, Devin Williams
Some Takeaways: Dynasty Baseball Strategy Tips:
- Don’t just think about prospects in terms of MLB-impact. Think of where they will be next year in the prospect rankings. A prospect who moves into the top ten may be just as impactful for your team as a prospect who takes up a lineup spot and begins impacting.
- I found myself in a situation where – since I was half rebuilding – I didn’t want to trade impact players to contenders for only prospects. But I also didn’t want to trade youth to rebuilding teams for impact players. So, what I found myself doing was trading older guys to contenders for prospects and then trading those prospects to rebuilding teams for younger, impact bats. Don’t be afraid to set up multi-team deals.
- Be patient. You never know when a player will be put up on the block by a desperate owner.
- Use as many of your extra bench spots for starting pitchers rather than hitters. Playing matchups with pitchers is way more valuable than hitters. Depending on how deep your league is, you can probably get away with no bench bats – 12 teamers or fewer.
- Let’s hit the season. I will update you guys on how things go along the way.